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Brazil: Is the rise in FDI caused by disguised portfolio investment?

Foreign direct investment (FDI) to Brazil has risen sharply since mid-2010. Some analysts see the increase as evidence that portfolio investment is entering the country disguised as FDI to skirt...

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Brazilian government growth forecast reflects wishful thinking

The Ministry of Finance projects the Brazilian economy will grow by 4.5% this year. The trouble with this forecast is that it increasingly looks out of touch with reality. By way of comparison, the...

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As go commodity prices, so goes Brazil’s competitiveness

Brazil’s external competitiveness is intimately tied to the global commodity price cycle. Swings in global commodity prices tend to move hand-in-hand with shifts in the real effective exchange rate, a...

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Brazil: Stimulus is necessary, but beware the side effects

The global backdrop has deteriorated dramatically in recent weeks, amid the spectre of a Greek exit from the eurozone and signs of waning import demand from China – Brazil’s biggest trade partner....

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How low will the SELIC rate go?

Brazil’s policy rate – the SELIC – is at an all-time low of 8.5% following a cumulative 400 basis points (bps) in cuts since August 2011. The rate cut cycle is set to continue. We now expect the...

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Brazil’s low unemployment-low growth conundrum

The strength of the labour market in the current low-growth environment is puzzling at first glance. Unemployment usually rises when economic growth is weak. However, the opposite has been true in...

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Brazil: Inflation is down but not out

Annual inflation has trended steadily downwards since peaking at 7.3% in September 2011. Given sluggish domestic economic activity and weak global growth, price pressures are not a concern, at least...

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Will Brazil’s housing market go from boom to bust?

Property prices and housing finance are on a tear in Brazil, leading to fears of a bubble. Housing prices have risen by over 10% so far this year on a nationwide basis. Meanwhile, home loans increased...

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Construction companies in Brazil get an early Christmas present

Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, announced a series of measures to stimulate the construction industry on December 4th. The announcement follows disappointing Q3 figures that showed the...

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Construction drags on growth in Colombia

Colombia’s overall economy grew by 2.1% in Q3 relative to the same period in 2011, which was well below expectations, owing to the dismal performance of the construction sector. Construction fell by...

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