Brazil: Is the rise in FDI caused by disguised portfolio investment?
Foreign direct investment (FDI) to Brazil has risen sharply since mid-2010. Some analysts see the increase as evidence that portfolio investment is entering the country disguised as FDI to skirt...
View ArticleBrazilian government growth forecast reflects wishful thinking
The Ministry of Finance projects the Brazilian economy will grow by 4.5% this year. The trouble with this forecast is that it increasingly looks out of touch with reality. By way of comparison, the...
View ArticleAs go commodity prices, so goes Brazil’s competitiveness
Brazil’s external competitiveness is intimately tied to the global commodity price cycle. Swings in global commodity prices tend to move hand-in-hand with shifts in the real effective exchange rate, a...
View ArticleBrazil: Stimulus is necessary, but beware the side effects
The global backdrop has deteriorated dramatically in recent weeks, amid the spectre of a Greek exit from the eurozone and signs of waning import demand from China – Brazil’s biggest trade partner....
View ArticleHow low will the SELIC rate go?
Brazil’s policy rate – the SELIC – is at an all-time low of 8.5% following a cumulative 400 basis points (bps) in cuts since August 2011. The rate cut cycle is set to continue. We now expect the...
View ArticleBrazil’s low unemployment-low growth conundrum
The strength of the labour market in the current low-growth environment is puzzling at first glance. Unemployment usually rises when economic growth is weak. However, the opposite has been true in...
View ArticleBrazil: Inflation is down but not out
Annual inflation has trended steadily downwards since peaking at 7.3% in September 2011. Given sluggish domestic economic activity and weak global growth, price pressures are not a concern, at least...
View ArticleWill Brazil’s housing market go from boom to bust?
Property prices and housing finance are on a tear in Brazil, leading to fears of a bubble. Housing prices have risen by over 10% so far this year on a nationwide basis. Meanwhile, home loans increased...
View ArticleConstruction companies in Brazil get an early Christmas present
Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, announced a series of measures to stimulate the construction industry on December 4th. The announcement follows disappointing Q3 figures that showed the...
View ArticleConstruction drags on growth in Colombia
Colombia’s overall economy grew by 2.1% in Q3 relative to the same period in 2011, which was well below expectations, owing to the dismal performance of the construction sector. Construction fell by...
View Article
More Pages to Explore .....